Friday, January 29, 2010

Venti IPod Launch-- The Chip Piece Was a Big Deal

A couple observations from the Venti IPod Launch and long term implications for Apple:

  • The most interesting piece of the tablet is it's the first Apple processor named the "A4" from their PA acquisition. I can't recall a situation where a company controls this much of the ecosystem for a product. They control the OS, the applications, and the now the processor. This has long term cost and performance differentiation possibilities if these chips gets integrated into the IPhone and IPod.
  • The biggest surprise to me was no announcement about other carriers regarding either the IPhone or the IPad. Possibly they want to delay this until closer to the summer when they actually start to sell on other carriers. If they stick with just the one carrier, that will make me a sad little IT camper.
  • This next bullet is going to get me a lot of hate mail from some of the Apple fanatics out there, but I think the IPhone at this point is dated and tired. In the earnings call before last, Apple was relatively arrogant about how it's IPhone was still miles ahead of competition. Give Android and some of the new phone launches, that's just not the case anymore. I've heard from more than a few sources that even with new market launches, momentum is slowing. It needs a refresh by May preferably much sooner.
  • The biggest question I have is how will the new processors from Apple translate into the next IPhone. Specifically, will speed and battery life be positively or negatively impacted by this device? Does Apple have the scale to make the economics of this new chip work? Will it go into the next release? How does it compare to Qualcomm's chips?
  • I would kill to see cost and performance data on the new A4 compared to Qualcomm and Samsung.
  • Apples closed architecture and ecosystem bet seems to be accelerating. My working theory has been that as hardware advances and people become more comfortable with Phone/Computers people are going to want to use their own applications in the mobile realm just like they do with their Macs. Do I want to use Apple's email app on my IPhone? Hell no--it's a piece of junk and I'd much rather use Gmail. I think people are going to want more control just as Apple starts to exert even more control.
  • There is no question that Steve Job's reinvigorated the the wireless world with innovation when he introduced the IPhone. I will always love the guy for that and his ability to wrest control from the carriers and truly innovate. However, we seem to have traded one monarch for another rather than getting any kinda application/software freedom on our phones.
  • The price is A LOT lower than I thought it would be--and I think will catch a lot of others off guards as well. Specifically other netbook/tablet makers.
  • My opinion on the IPad was not going to be anywhere near as transformation as the IPhone has not changed since release. This thing just looks like a product round out or a netbook launch in terms of revenue impact. Selling premium before the release was the right approach as detailed in my post here. With no details on new carrier relationships, I added 190 puts to the strategy. The lack of new carrier deals was a disappointment.
Long Common, Short Calls, Long Puts, Vertical Calls

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